{ "standard": "FactUnion Standard v1", "checkedAt": "2026-10-18T09:06:56.649Z", "title": "The Deal That Never Happened", "date": "2026-10-18", "facts": [ { "n": 1, "claim": "A Polymarket market asking whether Ukraine would agree to a US minerals deal before April resolved 'Yes' in March 2025 even though no such deal had been signed.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/26/polymarket-suffers-uma-governance-attack-after-rouge-actor-becomes-top-5-token-staker", "title": "Polymarket Suffers UMA Governance Attack After Rouge Actor Becomes Top-5 Token Staker" }, { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves", "title": "Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves" }, { "url": "https://decrypt.co/311634/polymarket-allegations-oracle-manipulation", "title": "Polymarket Breaks 'Deafening' Silence on Oracle Manipulation Allegations - Decrypt" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 2, "claim": "CoinDesk reported that a contentious Ukraine bet led to a clash between the Polymarket and UMA communities.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves", "title": "Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves" }, { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/26/polymarket-suffers-uma-governance-attack-after-rouge-actor-becomes-top-5-token-staker", "title": "Polymarket Suffers UMA Governance Attack After Rouge Actor Becomes Top-5 Token Staker" }, { "url": "https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-7m-ukraine-bet-resolves/", "title": "Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "The clash is supported, but CoinDesk's excerpt does not give $7M or \"minerals market.\" Other outlets cite a $7M bet or trading volume.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 3, "claim": "CoinDesk reported that a wallet called BornTooLate.Eth had become a top-five UMA staker, holding more than 1.3 million UMA tokens, at the time of the Ukraine resolution.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/26/polymarket-suffers-uma-governance-attack-after-rouge-actor-becomes-top-5-token-staker", "title": "Polymarket Suffers UMA Governance Attack After Rouge Actor Becomes Top-5 Token Staker" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (coindesk.com); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 4, "claim": "According to a widely shared thread, the 'Yes' proposal on the Ukraine market was made on Saturday, March 22, 2025, when Polymarket staff were off duty, and the 'Yes' side relied on a February 27 statement by the US Treasury Secretary.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1905258165777596812", "title": "Thread by @Domahhhh on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App" }, { "url": "https://threadreaderapp.com/scrolly/1905258165777596812", "title": "Thread by @Domahhhh on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App" }, { "url": "https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1905258165777596812.html", "title": "Thread by @Domahhhh on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Thread Reader App); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 5, "claim": "Contemporaneous accounts report that Polymarket posted a clarification saying it was too early for the market to resolve two minutes before UMA's commit period ended, and then issued another clarification two minutes before the reveal period ended.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://mrozi.substack.com/p/05m-scam-on-the-mineral-deal-market", "title": "$0.5m scam on the mineral deal market? - mr.ozi" }, { "url": "https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/c08df-polymarket-7m-ukraine-mineral-deal-bet", "title": "Polymarket under fire over $7M Ukraine mineral deal bet" }, { "url": "https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1904789723383529517.html", "title": "Thread by @tenad0me on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "Reversal and deferral to UMA vote unsupported; evidence shows only a second clarification two minutes before reveal end. Dropped unsupported Ukraine and 24-hour details.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 6, "claim": "Polymarket called the Ukraine episode an 'unprecedented' governance attack by a UMA whale and declined to issue refunds.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/348171/polymarket-says-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-to-hijack-a-bets-resolution-is-unprecedented", "title": "Polymarket says governance attack by UMA whale to hijack a bet’s resolution is ‘unprecedented’ | The Block" }, { "url": "https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/polymarket-reports-unprecedented-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-on-bet-resolution", "title": "Polymarket Reports 'Unprecedented' Governance Attack by UMA Whale on Bet Resolution | CoinMarketCap" }, { "url": "https://news.bitcoinprotocol.org/whale-allegedly-manipulates-7-million-bet-in-polymarket-governance-attack/", "title": "Whale Allegedly Manipulates $7 Million Bet in Polymarket Governance Attack" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 7, "claim": "In UMA's dispute system as used by Polymarket, the proposer and the disputer post equal bonds, typically $750, and the winner collects half of the opponent's bond.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution", "title": "https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution" }, { "url": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364551-how-are-markets-disputed", "title": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364551-how-are-markets-disputed" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (docs.polymarket.com); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 8, "claim": "A disputed question goes to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism for a 48-hour vote, with a 24-hour commit phase followed by a 24-hour reveal phase, and an outcome needs 65% of staked UMA to agree.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://docs.uma.xyz/using-uma/voting-walkthrough/dvm-2.0", "title": "DVM 2.0 | UMA Documentation" }, { "url": "https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/uma-oracle-polymarket-disputes", "title": "How Polymarket's UMA Oracle Settles Disputes — And How A Wha | OddsShopper" }, { "url": "https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-work", "title": "How does UMA's Oracle work? | UMA Documentation" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (UMA Documentation); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 9, "claim": "UMA voters who vote with the minority or miss a vote are slashed 0.1% of their stake per error or absence, and the slashed tokens are redistributed to the majority.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://docs.uma.xyz/using-uma/voting-walkthrough/dvm-2.0", "title": "DVM 2.0 | UMA Documentation" }, { "url": "https://github.com/UMAprotocol/uma-docs/blob/master/protocol-overview/dvm-2.0.md", "title": "protocol-overview/dvm-2.0.md at master · UMAprotocol/uma-docs" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (UMA Documentation); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 10, "claim": "In August 2025 UMA updated its oracle so that resolution proposals for Polymarket markets were limited to whitelisted parties, a change known as the managed oracle or MOOV2.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2025-08-12-polymarket-uma-oracle-update-366507", "title": "UMA’s oracle update to limit Polymarket resolution proposals to whitelisted parties to improve market outcomes" }, { "url": "https://duelduck.com/blog/when-oracles-fail-prediction-market-resolution-disasters", "title": "When Oracles Fail: Prediction Market Resolution Disasters | Duel Duck" }, { "url": "https://fidonis.org/integrity/moov2/", "title": "The managed oracle, measured - Fidonis" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 11, "claim": "An independent analysis by Fidonis found that dispute rates fell from 1.52% to 0.56% after the August 2025 whitelist (UMIP-189). It attributes the fall mostly to broader market trends and finds no statistically detectable reduction in contested outcomes when measured by volume.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://fidonis.org/integrity/moov2/", "title": "The managed oracle, measured - Fidonis" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Fidonis); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 12, "claim": "In June 2026 UMA token holders voted 98.6% to resolve a Polymarket market on a Strategy bitcoin sale (a reported 32 BTC sale) to 'No', despite the transaction being confirmed.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://woofun.ai/en/news/detail/97290", "title": "UMA token holders vote 98.6% to resolve Strategy 32 BTC sale market to no despite confirmed transaction | Woofun Research" }, { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-dispute-strategys-bitcoin-sale-resolves-no", "title": "Polymarket Resolves Strategy Bitcoin Sale Dispute to No" }, { "url": "https://crypto.news/polymarket-upholds-no-ruling-in-disputed-strategy-bitcoin-sale-market/", "title": "Polymarket upholds ‘No’ ruling in disputed Strategy Bitcoin sale market" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 13, "claim": "Cointelegraph reported that blockchain wallet borntoolate.eth held 3.11 million UMA tokens in the Strategy dispute, followed by Kevin Chan with 1.53 million tokens.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-dispute-strategys-bitcoin-sale-resolves-no", "title": "Polymarket Resolves Strategy Bitcoin Sale Dispute to No" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "Original misattributes the report to CoinDesk, claims votes cast and a \"No\" outcome, and adds unsupported roles. Evidence says Cointelegraph reported token holdings only.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 14, "claim": "Polymarket faced trader backlash in early June 2026 over the disputed Strategy bitcoin-sale market, with traders arguing the sale fell within the valid window. No public statement from Kevin Chan or borntoolate.eth responding to the controversy appears in our findings.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/403312/polymarket-faces-backlash-strategy-bitcoin-sale", "title": "Polymarket faces backlash over disputed Strategy bitcoin sale market | The Block" }, { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-06-04-polymarket-upholds-no-outcome-strategy-bitcoin-sale-market-403600", "title": "Polymarket's UMA vote upholds 'No' outcome on Strategy bitcoin sale market despite backlash" }, { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/02/strategy-sold-bitcoin-in-late-may-and-told-the-market-in-june-here-s-how-polymarket-bettors-are-fighting-over-when-it-counts", "title": "Strategy sold bitcoin in late May, and told the market in June ..." } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 15, "claim": "A Wall Street Journal analysis published May 18, 2026, using blockchain data linked to Polymarket accounts, found that in more than 300 disputes over the previous year, nearly 20% of those it reviewed, at least one UMA voter held a position in the market being decided.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://edgen.beta.edgen.tech/news/post/nearly-1-in-5-polymarket-disputes-show-voter-conflict-of-interest", "title": "Nearly 1 in 5 Polymarket disputes show voter conflict of interest" }, { "url": "https://edgen.dev.edgen.tech/news/post/nearly-1-in-5-polymarket-disputes-show-voter-conflict-of-interest", "title": "Nearly 1 in 5 Polymarket disputes show voter conflict of interest" }, { "url": "https://www.gate.com/news/detail/the-wall-street-journal-investigates-polymarket-arbitration-system-21183884", "title": "Wall Street Journal investigation: Polymarket arbitration system—anonymous token voters suspected of manipulating results | Gate News" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 16, "claim": "A UMA voter identified as 'Scout' acknowledged to the Journal regularly voting on resolutions while holding positions in the same contracts and defended the practice as necessary.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/fintech/polymarkets-arbitration-model-faces-conflict-of-interest-questions/", "title": "Polymarket’s Arbitration Model Faces Conflict-of-Interest Questions" }, { "url": "https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/polymarket-relies-on-uma-token-holders-for-dispute-resolution-amid-rising-controversies", "title": "Polymarket Relies on UMA Token Holders for Dispute Resolution Amid Rising Controversies | KuCoin" }, { "url": "https://readon.substack.com/p/strange-judges", "title": "Strange Judges - by Deb Preetendu Samaddar - ReadOn" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 17, "claim": "Bitquery's October 9, 2026 investigation matched 470 Polymarket disputes to 489 resolved questions from UMA voting rounds between September 9 and October 7, 2026.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations/who-decides-polymarket-disputes", "title": "Polymarket Disputes: One Wallet Is 80 for 80, Four Lost $23,000 in a Night - Bitquery" }, { "url": "https://paradigm.legal/insights/bitquery-polymarket-disputes-concentration-timing", "title": "Bitquery Reports Concentration and Timing Disputes in Polymarket Resolution" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Bitquery); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 18, "claim": "Bitquery found that the nine largest voting wallets held about 56.3% of average voting weight and acted as a near-unanimous bloc, but re-running the votes without them changed zero of the 489 outcomes.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations/who-decides-polymarket-disputes", "title": "Polymarket Disputes: One Wallet Is 80 for 80, Four Lost $23,000 in a Night - Bitquery" }, { "url": "https://paradigm.legal/insights/bitquery-polymarket-disputes-concentration-timing", "title": "Bitquery Reports Concentration and Timing Disputes in Polymarket Resolution" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Bitquery); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 19, "claim": "Bitquery identified wallet 0xc816f934fab8179997a05e4b71f405b9e2f69eb8 as winning all 80 disputes it filed, mostly by challenging resolutions proposed too early.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations/who-decides-polymarket-disputes", "title": "Polymarket Disputes: One Wallet Is 80 for 80, Four Lost $23,000 in a Night - Bitquery" }, { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations", "title": "On-Chain Research & Blockchain Investigations | Bitquery" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Bitquery); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 20, "claim": "Bitquery found four wallets that forfeited 500 USDC each across 46 disputes, about $23,000, in one night, all on markets for a Montevideo Wanderers vs. Albion football match.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations/who-decides-polymarket-disputes", "title": "Polymarket Disputes: One Wallet Is 80 for 80, Four Lost $23,000 in a Night - Bitquery" }, { "url": "https://paradigm.legal/insights/bitquery-polymarket-disputes-concentration-timing", "title": "Bitquery Reports Concentration and Timing Disputes in Polymarket Resolution" }, { "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations", "title": "On-Chain Research & Blockchain Investigations | Bitquery" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Bitquery); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 21, "claim": "Kalshi settles contracts internally under its rulebook, and a contested market goes to an Outcome Review Committee that makes a final determination within 24 hours.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/kalshi-settlement-review-window", "title": "Kalshi Market Pending Settlement? The 24-Hour Review Rule | OddsShopper" }, { "url": "https://bettingtribune.com/stories/prediction-market-disputes", "title": "Who Resolves Prediction Market Disputes? | Betting Tribune" }, { "url": "https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/kalshi-steelers-win-total-dispute", "title": "Kalshi Steelers Over 8.5 Settlement: Refunded, Not Paid | OddsShopper" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 22, "claim": "Kalshi faces a class action, Risch v. KalshiEX LLC, over a reported $54 million market on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, in which traders argue that a 'death carveout' clause the exchange enforced was poorly disclosed.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.thecorequant.com/two-prediction-market-giants-two-very-different-ways-of-deciding-whos-right", "title": "Two Prediction-Market Giants, Two Very Different Ways of Deciding Who's Right" }, { "url": "https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cacd.1009602/gov.uscourts.cacd.1009602.1.0.pdf", "title": "UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA" }, { "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kalshi-sued-over-ouster-iran-leader-prediction-market-2026-03-06/", "title": "Kalshi sued over ouster of Iran leader prediction market | Reuters" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 23, "claim": "According to a review of resolution failures, in January 2026 Kalshi mistakenly settled some NFL markets early, then after public backlash reversed course and paid affected traders from its own funds.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://research.xo.market/the-hidden-risk-of-prediction-markets-14-resolution-failures-that-cost-500m-7711900b83c0", "title": "Medium" }, { "url": "https://casinobeats.com/2026/01/07/kalshi-reverses-policy-unpaid-nfl-winning-predictions-user-backlash/", "title": "Kalshi Reverses Policy on Unpaid NFL Winning Predictions" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 24, "claim": "New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to hear its fight with Kalshi (Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299), supported by 39 states and the District of Columbia, and Kalshi has asked for until November 9, 2026 to respond.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/26-299/428759/20261007134816267_Kalshi%20Cert%20Amicus.pdf", "title": "v. KALSHIEX, LLC," }, { "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-299.html", "title": "Docket for 26-299" }, { "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=%2Fdocket%2Fdocketfiles%2Fhtml%2Fpublic%2F26-299.html", "title": "Search - Supreme Court of the United States" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true } ], "removed": [ { "claim": "On-chain attack documentation (OAK) describes about 5 million UMA tokens cast from three wallets, roughly 25% of the total vote, behind the 'Yes' resolution of the Ukraine market. The 1.3 million figure was one wallet's balance, not the total voting power used.", "reason": "Sources only partly back this: cryptoslate.com." }, { "claim": "A UMA spokesperson described the Ukraine resolution as a series of unfortunate events, while some users argued that voters ignored Polymarket's clarification to avoid being slashed for voting with the minority.", "reason": "We could not find a public record about this either way." }, { "claim": "Election-market volume on prediction platforms rose 136.8% from September to October 2026 as the midterms approached.", "reason": "Sources only partly back this: nextpredict.io." } ], "audioCheck": { "lines": 165, "matched": 165 }, "corrections": [], "verify": { "method": "1.2", "llmMode": "testing", "models": { "summary": "claude-haiku-5-5", "extract": "claude-haiku-5-5", "consolidate": "claude-haiku-5-5", "query": "claude-haiku-5-5", "read": "claude-haiku-5-5", "read_second": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "compare": "claude-haiku-5-5", "classify": "claude-haiku-5-5", "explain": "claude-haiku-5-5", "undash": "claude-haiku-5-5", "correct": "claude-haiku-5-5" }, "preScript": { "jobId": "job_W76W8PG04E4CP1848DPE", "checkedAt": "2026-10-18T09:06:56.649Z", "counts": { "verified": 21, "corrected": 3, "removed": 3 } }, "episode": { "jobId": "job_T0MZC1HJBJDE496Y0W0W", "checkRef": "chk_6VXP4X01F4W45HPKBH5X", "trustPageUrl": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-18T21:17:30.393Z", "score": 77, "outcome": "not_verified", "counts": { "verified": 26, "not_verified": 2, "questionable": 21, "unable_to_determine": 17 }, "stability": { "spread": 5, "unstableClaims": 8, "pass": true }, "notVerified": [ { "k": 18, "claim": "Anyone can dispute a UMA answer by posting a matching bond of $7.50.", "reasonText": "crypto.news states something different: \"A proposer submits the answer, Yes or No, and posts a bond of $750 in USDC.\"." }, { "k": 25, "claim": "CoinDesk reported that the wallet borntoolate.eth had become one of the five biggest takers in all of UMA, with more than 300,000 tokens.", "reasonText": "coindesk.com states something different: \"On-chain data shows that BornTooLate.eth has approximately 1.3 million UMA tokens, making them a top-5 governance staker\"." } ], "questionable": [ { "k": 4, "claim": "On Saturday, March 22, 2025, someone formally proposed that the Polymarket minerals contract resolve yes, while the UMA voting clock was running.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 6, "claim": "The yes case relied on a statement made by the US treasury secretary on February 27.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Thread Reader App." }, { "k": 26, "claim": "Later analyses by OA key, Inves and Settle Risk put the decisive weight at about 5,000,000 UMA cast from three wallets, roughly a quarter of the whole vote.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: cryptovalleyjournal.com." }, { "k": 27, "claim": "The 1,300,000 UMA figure was one wallet's balance, not the total voting power that swung the vote.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: tryethernal.com." }, { "k": 28, "claim": "A UMA spokesperson described the whole dispute as a series of unfortunate events.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Thread Reader App." }, { "k": 32, "claim": "CoinDesk summarised the Strategy dispute result as No for May and Yes for June.", "reasonText": "The fact holds, but the named source does not say it." }, { "k": 34, "claim": "Cointelegraph reported that borntoolate.eth cast 3,110,000 UMA and Kevin Chan, a UMA contributor, cast 1,530,000 UMA on the no side of the June 2026 vote.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: cointelegraph.com." }, { "k": 36, "claim": "The Wall Street Journal published an analysis of Polymarket-linked UMA voting on May 18, 2026.", "reasonText": "Only lower-weight sources state this: financemagnates.com and 1 more." }, { "k": 37, "claim": "The Wall Street Journal analysis used blockchain data linked to Polymarket accounts and reviewed more than 300 disputes from 2025.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: livemint.com." }, { "k": 43, "claim": "The traders' allegations against Kalshi are a claim in a lawsuit, with no ruling on them.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: openclassactions.com." }, { "k": 44, "claim": "In January 2026, Kalshi settled some NFL markets early by mistake.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: research.xo.market." }, { "k": 50, "claim": "Bitquery published an investigation called Who Decides Polymarket Disputes on October 9, 2026.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: chainbetrank.com." }, { "k": 52, "claim": "Bitquery's audit covered every UMA voting round from September 9 to October 7, 2026, which is four weeks of normal voting days.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: chainbetrank.com." }, { "k": 53, "claim": "Bitquery found the nine biggest UMA voting wallets held about 56% of average voting weight and voted as a near-unanimous block.", "reasonText": "Only lower-weight sources state this: Bitquery and 1 more." }, { "k": 55, "claim": "One wallet whose address starts with OXC816 filed 80 disputes, won all 80, and was right in every call it made early.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Bitquery." }, { "k": 56, "claim": "The OXC816 wallet mostly won by challenging resolutions that were proposed too early.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Bitquery." }, { "k": 59, "claim": "UMA called its August 2025 change the managed oracle, MOOV2.", "reasonText": "Only lower-weight sources state this: theblock.co and 1 more." }, { "k": 60, "claim": "Raw dispute rates on Polymarket fell from 1.52% to 0.56% after UMA's August 2025 change.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: Fidonis." }, { "k": 62, "claim": "When disputes are weighted by money traded, fidonis found no detectable drop in contested outcomes.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Fidonis." }, { "k": 63, "claim": "Holders of No positions on the minerals contract lost their money after the contract resolved Yes.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 64, "claim": "The votes of borntoolate.eth and Kevin Chan are recorded on chain.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Woofun Research." } ] } } }