{ "standard": "FactUnion Standard v1", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T04:53:21.315Z", "title": "Egypt Outdrew Spain: When the Volume Chart Lies", "date": "2026-10-25", "facts": [ { "n": 1, "claim": "CNBC reported on Sept. 30, 2026 that on Polymarket international's sports contracts, $158 million traded on Egypt's odds to win the World Cup, odds that never crossed 0.5%, versus $152 million on eventual winner Spain.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://ua.news/en/finansi/cnbc-viiaviv-netipovi-obsiagi-ether-fiuchersiv-na-kalshi-cnbc", "title": "CNBC finds unusual Ether futures volumes on Kalshi" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 2, "claim": "CNBC added that Spain's volume was slightly smaller than Morocco's, and that Morocco never had a greater than 2% chance.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 3, "claim": "CNBC said a September analysis found the low-odds volume pattern wasn't detectable on 2028 presidential nominee contracts on Polymarket's US exchange.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 4, "claim": "Polymarket head of revenue and analytics Kyle Gesuelli told CNBC that low-odds contract activity is driven by highly active 'sharps' finding mispricing, not wash trading, and said: \"It's actually healthy for markets because it brings pricing imbalances back into balance.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 5, "claim": "CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' on Sept. 23, 2026: \"We have a zero tolerance policy when it comes to any sort of manipulative trading, including wash trading, insider trading, or fraud in our markets.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 6, "claim": "CNBC wrote that the Wall Street Journal reported the CFTC is examining trades on Kalshi's ether perpetual future contract; CNBC could not independently verify that, and a CFTC spokesperson said the agency doesn't confirm or deny matters related to investigations.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 7, "claim": "After an unnamed user on X flagged the pattern on Sept. 20, CNBC found that nearly half of that day's dollar volume on Kalshi's ether perpetuals came from trades sized between $5,495 and $5,505.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 8, "claim": "Kalshi denied any wash trading on its platform, and spokesperson Jack Such said Kalshi has \"zero concerns\" about the ratio of daily volume to resting liquidity.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 9, "claim": "Ulm University's Andre Guettler wrote in a working paper: \"To the extent that a material share of reported perpetual volume is manufactured... headline volume and its trajectory may overstate the underlying trading demand on which such a valuation would rest.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 10, "claim": "Tamika Bent of K&L Gates told CNBC exchanges have \"a duty to protect market integrity by monitoring market conditions, price movements, and volumes in real time for abnormalities.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volume-scrutiny.html", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://10bmnews.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raise-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raise questions amid massive growth" }, { "url": "https://blog.nidoproject.com/kalshi-polymarket-trading-volumes-on-some-products-raises-questions-amid-massive-growth/", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket trading volumes on some products raises questions amid massive growth" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 11, "claim": "SSRN lists 'Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading' as written November 6, 2025.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5714122", "title": "Network-Based Detection of Wash Trading by Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria, Rajiv Sethi :: SSRN" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "The November 6, 2025 written date is supported by SSRN. The posted and revised dates are not stated in the evidence, and the Columbia passage does not concern this paper's dates.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 12, "claim": "Fortune reported on Nov. 7, 2025 that the Columbia researchers concluded 'artificial trading' averaged 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the previous three years, and that the authors called the figures estimates and did not accuse Polymarket of being responsible.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://coin360.com/news/columbia-study-polymarket-wash-trading-25-volume", "title": "Columbia University Study Finds One-Quarter of Polymarket Trading Volume Potentially Artificial" }, { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605052223", "title": "Polymarket's 25% Fake Volume Poses a Risk to the Trustworthiness of Prediction Markets" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 13, "claim": "The study flagged about 14% of 1.26 million wallets, plus 45% of sports volume and 17% of election volume; sports peaked at about 90% in the week of Oct. 21, 2024.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605053164", "title": "\"Study Reveals 25% of Polymarket's Trading Volume is Artificial Due to Ghost Trades\"" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (bitget.com); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 14, "claim": "Co-author Yash Kanoria said: \"Wash trading doesn't add liquidity or information to the market, so it would seem valuable to distinguish authentic from inauthentic volume.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/11/07/polymarket-wash-trading-inflated-prediction-markets-columbia-research/", "title": "Polymarket volume inflated by ‘artificial’ activity, study finds" }, { "url": "https://cryptonews.com.au/news/study-finds-one-quarter-of-polymarket-trading-may-be-artificial-131637/", "title": "Study Finds One-Quarter of Polymarket Trading May Be Artificial" }, { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/phishing-links-in-polymarket-private-markets/", "title": "Phishing links in Polymarket private markets: Users raise alarm" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 15, "claim": "Kanoria also said in an email, \"I'm hopeful that Polymarket will welcome the analysis in our paper,\" while a Polymarket representative didn't have an immediate comment and was reviewing the study.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/11/07/polymarket-wash-trading-inflated-prediction-markets-columbia-research/", "title": "Polymarket volume inflated by ‘artificial’ activity, study finds" }, { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/phishing-links-in-polymarket-private-markets/", "title": "Phishing links in Polymarket private markets: Users raise alarm" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 16, "claim": "Rajiv Sethi explained the method: \"Wash traders trade with other wash traders in their collusive clique, while market makers neither know nor care who their counterparties are.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://rajivsethi.substack.com/p/the-detection-of-wash-trading", "title": "The Detection of Wash Trading" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Substack); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 17, "claim": "Sethi describes a cluster of 200 wallets named MAY (e.g., MAY20, MAY117, MAY175, MAY176) that traded over 116 million shares and more than 113 million in dollar volume at an aggregate loss of $57.86, with purchases followed by sales a tenth of a penny lower around 6pm on a November 1.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://rajivsethi.substack.com/p/the-detection-of-wash-trading", "title": "The Detection of Wash Trading" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Substack); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 18, "claim": "Paradigm showed that summing all OrderFilled events double-counts Polymarket volume, so a $4.13 sale of YES tokens is recorded as $8.26, and said most dashboards made this mistake.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.paradigm.xyz/writing/polymarket-volume-is-being-double-counted", "title": "Polymarket Volume Is Being Double-Counted" }, { "url": "https://www.cryptopolitan.com/polymarket-double-counts-figures/", "title": "Polymarket double-counts trading figures, Paradigm reveals - Cryptopolitan" }, { "url": "https://creeptoz.com/polymarket-double-counts-buying-and-selling-figures-paradigm-reveals/", "title": "Polymarket double-counts buying and selling figures, Paradigm reveals" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 19, "claim": "Polymarket's developer docs state that in a neg risk event, a No share in any market can be converted into 1 Yes share in every other market.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/developers/neg-risk/overview", "title": "Negative Risk Markets" }, { "url": "https://www.bucko.ai/learn/polymarket-negative-risk-markets-guide", "title": "Polymarket Negative Risk Markets Explained" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "The original omitted the condition. The docs limit this conversion to neg risk events, not all markets.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 20, "claim": "Converting NO tokens back to pUSD is fee-free apart from gas, whereas selling NO tokens on the open market means paying the bid-ask spread.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://startpolymarket.com/learn/converting-negative-risk/", "title": "Polymarket Negative Risk & Arbitrage Explained" } ], "verdict": "corrected", "note": "Single T3 source. It doesn't name the NegRiskAdapter, so that detail is dropped. The gas-only fee and the spread contrast are supported. Kept on a lower-weight source; nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 21, "claim": "For a separate analysis of closed markets, CNBC pulled data from Polymarket's Gamma API, \"which counts notional volume on both sides of each trade.\"", "sources": [ { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/45-000-polymarket-markets-recorded-123925870.html", "title": "45,000 Polymarket Markets Recorded Zero Trading Volume, CNBC Analysis Shows" }, { "url": "https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605489112", "title": "45,000 Polymarket Markets Recorded Zero Trading Volume, CNBC Analysis Shows" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (Yahoo (mostly republished)); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": true, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 22, "claim": "DefiRate reports Polymarket US volume for Sep. 25 to Oct. 24, 2026 two ways: $13.4B in contracts traded versus $3.3B in dollars paid.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/volume/polymarket-us/", "title": "Polymarket US Trading Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (defirate.com); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 23, "claim": "Cardozo and Rivero-Wildemauwe analyzed 588 million Polymarket trades by 2.48 million wallets (Nov. 2022 to Mar. 2026) and found dollar-weighted purchases below 10 cents lost 19.35 cents per dollar with a 95% confidence interval that includes zero, while sports longshots earned positive returns.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2609.12878v1", "title": "Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets:Evidence from Polymarket" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 24, "claim": "Rasooly and Rozzi randomly shocked prices in 817 markets, found effects still visible 60 days later, and found that markets with more traders, greater volume and an external source of probability estimates are harder to manipulate.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2503.03312v1", "title": "How manipulable are prediction markets?" }, { "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.03312", "title": "How manipulable are prediction markets?" }, { "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2503.03312.html", "title": "How manipulable are prediction markets?" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 25, "claim": "About 194,000 unique addresses traded Polymarket's World Cup winner market, roughly 130,000 of them finished in the red, and Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the July 19 final.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0b84e-polymarket-world-cup-spain-winner", "title": "194,000 Addresses Traded Polymarket’s World Cup Market and Most Lost" }, { "url": "https://forklog.com/en/polymarket-traders-lose-over-37m-on-2026-world-cup-outcome/", "title": "Polymarket traders lose over $37M on 2026 World Cup outcome" }, { "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-07-20-kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-falls-20-as-world-cup-frenzy-winds-down-408965", "title": "Kalshi, Polymarket open interest falls 20% as World Cup frenzy winds down | The Block" } ], "verdict": "verified", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true }, { "n": 26, "claim": "Polymarket's docs say on-chain trades, balances and positions are available through analytics platforms including Goldsky, Dune and Allium.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/resources/blockchain-data", "title": "Data Resources" } ], "verdict": "verified", "note": "Kept on a lower-weight source (docs.polymarket.com); nothing we found says otherwise.", "quote": false, "usedInEpisode": true } ], "removed": [ { "claim": "The SSRN abstract says wash trading trended up from July 2024, peaked at nearly 60% of Polymarket volume in December 2024, subsided after late April 2025, and returned to about 20% in early October 2025.", "reason": "Reliable sources disagree about this." }, { "claim": "Polymarket US requires full KYC (government ID, SSN, live selfie, proof of US residency), while the international site requires no identity check for most users; the two run separate order books, and international makers earn rebates.", "reason": "We could not find a public record about this either way." } ], "audioCheck": { "lines": 175, "matched": 175 }, "corrections": [], "verify": { "method": "1.3", "llmMode": "testing", "models": { "summary": "claude-haiku-5-5", "extract": "claude-haiku-5-5", "consolidate": "claude-haiku-5-5", "query": "claude-haiku-5-5", "read": "claude-haiku-5-5", "read_second": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "compare": "claude-haiku-5-5", "classify": "claude-haiku-5-5", "explain": "claude-haiku-5-5", "undash": "claude-haiku-5-5", "correct": "claude-haiku-5-5" }, "preScript": { "jobId": "job_R71VVJRABK5AJGC1AFQK", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T04:53:21.315Z", "counts": { "verified": 23, "corrected": 3, "removed": 2 } }, "episode": { "jobId": "job_N81HGBJGZMZ8D8Y5GYXS", "checkRef": "chk_FWVVKB0470Q6GM8CH2RH", "trustPageUrl": null, "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T09:48:06.606Z", "score": 92, "outcome": "not_verified", "counts": { "verified": 47, "not_verified": 0, "questionable": 20, "unable_to_determine": 25 }, "stability": { "spread": 5, "unstableClaims": 7, "pass": true }, "notVerified": [], "questionable": [ { "k": 6, "claim": "CNBC reported that Spain's volume on Polymarket's international exchange for the World Cup winner market came in slightly under Morocco's.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: briefs.co." }, { "k": 8, "claim": "Rajiv Sethi wrote a Substack post and is one of the authors of the Columbia wash-trading study.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: Fortune." }, { "k": 10, "claim": "About 200 wallets in the May-named cluster were all named May followed by a number.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 12, "claim": "The May-named wallet cluster traded more than 116 million shares, with more than 113 million dollars in dollar volume.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 13, "claim": "The combined loss for the whole May-named wallet cluster was 57.86 dollars.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 28, "claim": "The wash-trading paper's method looked for unusual trading relationships between accounts, meaning who trades with whom, rather than unusual prices.", "reasonText": "Only lower-weight sources state this: Substack and 1 more." }, { "k": 29, "claim": "Rajiv Sethi said wash traders trade with other wash traders in a collusive clique, while market makers do not know or care who their counterparties are.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: Substack." }, { "k": 36, "claim": "The Columbia study authors did not accuse Polymarket or anyone else of wash trading.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: Fortune." }, { "k": 38, "claim": "Polymarket's documentation describes a multi-outcome market setup in which exactly one outcome resolves to Yes at the end of the tournament.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: GitHub." }, { "k": 40, "claim": "On Polymarket, converting No tokens back into the dollar token is fee-free apart from gas.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: startpolymarket.com." }, { "k": 49, "claim": "Paradigm wrote that adding up every OrderFilled event counts each trade twice, so a 4.13 dollar sale of Yes tokens is recorded as 8.26 dollars.", "reasonText": "The fact holds, but the named source does not say it." }, { "k": 51, "claim": "A sale of 4.13 dollars is recorded on-chain as 8.26 dollars when every OrderFilled event is added up.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: paradigm.xyz." }, { "k": 55, "claim": "DefiRate tracks Polymarket's US exchange volume both in contracts traded and in dollars paid.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: defirate.com." }, { "k": 56, "claim": "DefiRate reports that Polymarket's US exchange had 13.4 billion dollars in contracts traded from September 25 to October 24, 2026.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: defirate.com." }, { "k": 57, "claim": "DefiRate reports that Polymarket's US exchange had 3.3 billion dollars paid out from September 25 to October 24, 2026.", "reasonText": "Only one source states this: defirate.com." }, { "k": 79, "claim": "The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC is examining trades on the Egypt World Cup winner contract on Polymarket.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: CNBC." }, { "k": 83, "claim": "Andre Guettler of Ulm University wrote a working paper on Kalshi's perpetual futures volume.", "reasonText": "The fact holds, but the named source does not say it." }, { "k": 84, "claim": "Andre Guettler wrote that headline volume and its trajectory may overstate underlying trading demand to the extent that a material share of reported perpetual volume is manufactured.", "reasonText": "The fact holds, but the named source does not say it." }, { "k": 90, "claim": "Nadia found no formal response from Polymarket to the Columbia study after the representative's initial comment.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: cointelegraph.com." }, { "k": 91, "claim": "The Egypt and Spain volume figures were built from on-chain Polymarket data.", "reasonText": "Sources only partly back this: CNBC." } ] } } }