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Where the Money Went

The Price Inside Every Price

Wholesale diesel jumped twenty-one percent in September while grocery prices fell, so we follow one diesel dollar down the line to find who's paying for it right now.

Lena and Otis · 22 min · 17 Oct 2026

FactUnion VerifiedEvery fact on the episode's fact sheet was checked against its sources. Wrong facts were corrected. What this meansFacts checked 16 Oct 2026

Chapters (12)

About this episode

In September 2026 wholesale diesel rose 21 percent in a single month, and grocery prices went down. Lena and Otis follow one diesel dollar from the pump to the shelf. It goes through a Miami trucker who has been sleeping in his truck since mid-August, a regional grocer who now pays more to move a head of lettuce than the lettuce costs, and a Tucson food truck that cut its prices. The gap between wholesale and consumer inflation turns out to be a bill, and the people in the middle are covering it for now.

We also look at which foods are most exposed, how the same fuel spike fed Social Security's 2027 raise, and what the Russian diesel deal does and doesn't change. Then the whole week in one minute: the debt scare around data-center companies, mortgage rates, the White House inquiry into Fed Governor Lisa Cook, tariff refunds, Bank of America's fine and prediction markets.

Hosted by Lena and Otis, performed by synthetic voices.

Facts and sources

Every fact used in this episode, with the sources it was checked against. Download as data

211 of 211 recorded lines matched the checked script.

  1. The BLS reported on Oct. 15, 2026 that the September producer price index for final demand rose 1.3% for the month and 6.3% over the year.

  2. In the September 2026 PPI, wholesale diesel fuel prices rose 21% in the month.

  3. In the September 2026 PPI, producer prices for transportation and warehousing services rose 3.4% in the month.

  4. In the September 2026 PPI, food for final demand rose 1.2% in the month but was unchanged from September 2025.

  5. The BLS reported on Oct. 14, 2026 that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year.

Show all 37 factsShow fewer facts

  1. In the September 2026 CPI, gasoline rose 9.1% for the month and 34.2% over the year.

  2. In the September 2026 CPI, food at home fell 0.1% for the month and was up 1.8% over the year; food away from home rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% over the year.

  3. In the September 2026 CPI, transportation services rose 0.6% for the month and 2.7% over the year.

    Reworded to match its sources. Source corrected: the page first cited does not state this; the sources listed do.

  4. The EIA national average retail diesel price was $6.179 a gallon for the week of Oct. 12, 2026.

  5. The EIA national average retail diesel price was $3.809 a gallon for the week of Feb. 23, 2026, so the Oct. 12 price is about 62% higher.

  6. Diesel is short worldwide because the Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern refineries and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries led Moscow to ban diesel exports, and China curtailed fuel exports; U.S. diesel inventories are about 13% below the five-year seasonal average even with refineries near maximum capacity.

  7. Trucking fuel surcharges are typically indexed to the weekly DOE/EIA retail diesel price.

  8. Refrigerated carriers burn extra diesel to keep the cold chain running and often operate on margins below 1%, so they pass fuel increases directly to buyers.

  9. A 2019 Texas A&M Transportation Institute study found transportation accounts for 14% to 21% of the retail price of a gallon of milk.

    Reworded to match its sources. The 4.1 cents per food dollar figure is not in the TTI study and is not confirmed, so it was dropped. The milk figure of 14% to 21% is confirmed.

  10. The Oct. 14, 2026 Beige Book says retailers generally can’t pass on rising costs and are holding prices or offering discounts, while manufacturers have more pricing power as expiring contracts and hedges force renegotiation.

  11. The Oct. 14, 2026 Beige Book says many trucking carriers struggle to make a profit when diesel rises after contract rates are set, with some dipping into savings or halting new fleet purchases.

    Reworded to match its sources. Source corrected: the page first cited does not state this; the sources listed do.

  12. U.S. food-at-home prices rose 13.5% in the year ended August 2022.

  13. On Oct. 9, 2026, President Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply 4.8 million metric tons of diesel: 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons after that, and 3 million more depending on refinery conditions.

  14. Treasury’s General License 135, dated Oct. 9, 2026, permits the sale, shipment and import of Russian diesel until 12:01 a.m. EDT on April 7, 2027, with no volume cap.

  15. Analysts say the 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel equals roughly 10 days of U.S. diesel demand.

  16. On Oct. 14, 2026, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, based on the CPI-W. The raise adds about $75 a month to the average retirement benefit for nearly 72 million beneficiaries starting in January 2027.

  17. Freddie Mac reported on Oct. 15, 2026 that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 7.40%, its highest in nearly three years.

  18. Redfin reported on Oct. 15, 2026 that median asking prices fell 0.3% year over year in the period ending Oct. 11, the first decline since March.

  19. Yields on bonds issued by CoreWeave, which rents out AI computing power, rose above 15% on Oct. 15, 2026, with some notes reaching 15.78%, as investors soured on AI debt.

  20. As the AI selloff sent investors into Treasuries on Oct. 15, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 11 basis points to 5.08%.

  21. On Oct. 7, 2026, President Trump set up a three-member committee of Kevin Hassett, Keith Sonderling and Andrea Rich to investigate mortgage-related allegations against Fed Governor Lisa Cook; in an Oct. 13 letter her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, called the committee “demonstrably biased” and said Cook cannot attend the Nov. 5 hearing.

    Reworded to match its sources. The evidence says the committee was set up on Oct. 7, not Oct. 9. The third member is Andrea Rich, not Andrea Lucas, and the letter was sent on Oct. 13, not Oct. 14.

  22. On Oct. 8, 2026, Judge Richard K. Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade certified a class of importers in Freestyle World, Inc. v. CBP seeking refunds of IEEPA tariffs; about $166 billion in such duties was collected, and roughly $126 billion had been refunded by Oct. 2, 2026.

    Reworded to match its sources. The evidence says roughly $126 billion (over 75% of about $166 billion) had been refunded. It does not say over $126 billion.

  23. On Oct. 13, 2026, Treasury announced actions against Bank of America totaling over $1.21 billion: a $1.2 billion FinCEN penalty, which includes a $750 million OCC civil money penalty, plus an $11.6 million OFAC settlement covering 475 apparent sanctions violations.

  24. On Oct. 9, 2026, the CFTC proposed a rule to classify event contracts, including those on sports and politics, as swaps under its federal jurisdiction, while the legal fight with states continues.

  25. In its October 2026 Beige Book report, the Richmond Fed wrote: “A regional grocery chain noted that with diesel prices rising thirty percent since last year, they now pay more to transport a head of lettuce from California than the cost of the lettuce itself. At the same time, the grocer noted extreme customer price sensitivity and an inability to pass along those rising transportation costs.”

  26. Sean Howarth, 36, an independent trucker based in Miami, said: “When I started, it cost me $500 to fill my tank, and now it’s $950 or $1,100-plus, depending on where I am in the country.”

  27. Sean Howarth had not been home since mid-August, sleeps in his truck, and does not plan to return home until the holidays unless diesel prices fall sharply.

  28. On one load from Rogers, Minnesota, to Johnstown, New York, Sean Howarth paid $626 to top off his tank for a load that grossed about $1,000; he owes $5,300 a month for his truck payment and insurance.

  29. Lewie Pugh, executive vice president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents more than 135,000 members, said: “When fuel goes up a dollar a gallon at the pump, that’s another $400 per week that they have to spend.”

  30. Javier Castro, who owns the Cowpig food truck in Tucson, said it now costs about $300 to fill his truck with diesel, and he lowered his prices, selling a five dollar breakfast burrito.

  31. Javier Castro said: “I refuse to raise prices, I think people are hurting enough here in town.”

  32. David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told Marketplace that prices for some frozen foods and fresh fruits and vegetables are starting to tick up again: “These are products that have to be refrigerated, that are perishable, that have to travel long distances.”

Checked but not used (1)

  1. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Oct. 8, 2026 that additional interest rate hikes are needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target.

Removed during checking (3)

  • USDA ERS and academic analysis find food price lags range from one to two months for less-processed items like meat and eggs to up to six months for highly processed goods.

    Why it was removed: The cited 1997 ERS bulletin models how oil price shocks affect food prices and says nothing about lag durations. The check gives different, vaguer ranges and does not mention eggs.

  • The Fed's Oct. 14, 2026 Beige Book reports that a regional grocery chain now pays more to transport a head of lettuce from California than the lettuce itself costs, but cannot pass the cost to customers because they are so price-sensitive (in the national summary, not attributed to a district).

    Why it was removed: The fetched national summary passages mention fuel surcharges and price-sensitive customers but not the lettuce. The check says the Beige Book credits the anecdote to the Richmond Fed district.

  • An equipment producer told the Fed for the Oct. 14, 2026 Beige Book: We had tried absorbing steel price increases for a few months hoping they would go down or at least stabilize; they continued to increase so we finally did implement a price increase.

    Why it was removed: The cited page excerpts contain no equipment producer quote about absorbing steel price increases, and the independent check found no matching anecdote, only general reports of manufacturers passing on metal and steel costs.

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